The cryptocurrency markets have a way of teaching investors vital lessons through history repeating itself. One of the most insightful periods to revisit is September 2020, a time that set the stage for one of crypto’s most significant multi-month bull runs. Understanding the market behavior during that era can provide invaluable guidance for today’s investors facing similar patterns in 2025. Let’s delve into the key takeaways and what they mean for crypto enthusiasts now.
History Rhymes: The Ethereum Price Parallels
Ethereum (ETH) is currently exhibiting strong similarities with its price action from September 2020. Back then, after the shock of the COVID-19 crash, Ethereum had rebounded from black swan lows and successfully broken through critical resistance zones, sparking early bullish sentiment. Fast forward to 2025, and Ethereum has endured its own share of macroeconomic shocks—including tariffs and other black swan events—leading to steep corrections.
Yet, just like in 2020, ETH has surged above key resistance levels, reigniting belief in a bullish trend. Analysts highlight that Ethereum’s deviation from the 200-day moving average now closely mirrors September 2020 and March 2024. Such divergence often signals the market is due for a corrective period—a shakeout or consolidation—before potentially resuming its climb.
Despite this, ETH hasn’t yet pulled back to its 50-day moving average, a move typically seen in similar historical setups, which means some sideways or downward volatility should be anticipated. In essence, the path to higher prices often involves inevitable dips. But if Ethereum can clear its old 2021 peak near $4,800, it could pave the way for a strong finish to 2025 and a sustainable bullish cycle in 2026. Historically, Ethereum’s confirmation of strength has also heralded explosive momentum in altcoins.
The ETH/BTC Ratio: A Barometer for Altcoin Momentum
Beyond Ethereum’s absolute price, its performance relative to Bitcoin is an important indicator for broader market dynamics. The ETH/BTC ratio measures whether investors favor Ethereum (and by extension, altcoins) over Bitcoin. In September 2020, this ratio was stuck in consolidation with signs of indecision, exemplified by a “spinning top” weekly candle—a classic signal of uncertainty.
Currently, the ETH/BTC ratio is mirroring that exact setup, including similar MACD levels, which in 2020 preceded a significant rally. If history holds, we might see some further short-term downside before a breakout that fuels an extended altcoin rally, possibly lasting into 2026. This correction could actually be beneficial, building a stronger foundation for sustained growth rather than a fleeting spike. However, it is essential to remember that market echoes aren’t guarantees—patterns might change, and volatility is the norm.
Altcoins: Waiting in the Wings
The broader altcoin market, beyond Ethereum and Bitcoin, is showing intriguing signs of life. The weekly “Others” chart tracking medium and small-cap altcoins reveals formation of an ascending triangle pattern, often bullish when broken to the upside. This contrasts with the sideways action seen in 2020, suggesting a more aggressive stance among altcoins this time.
Moreover, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for altcoins remains well below past cycle peaks, indicating room for growth without the risk of an imminent market top. This implies an altcoin season is still plausible, offering opportunities for substantial gains.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum (“total three”) is also displaying promising traits. Instead of stalling as in 2020, it has started September 2025 with an uptrend and is consolidating within a bullish pennant—a classic pattern that frequently leads to continuation upward.
The Smaller Caps Against Bitcoin
Looking at smaller-cap altcoins relative to Bitcoin provides further insight. In 2020, this segment experienced sideways trading before a sharp decline, followed by an explosive surge in 2021. As of September 2025, the chart shows a similar sideways pattern, but with subtle distinctions that may point to an eventual positive breakout.
This behavior suggests that risk appetite may be increasing among investors, with altcoins potentially starting to lead rather than just following Ethereum and Bitcoin’s momentum.
What September 2020 Teaches Us Now
- Expect volatility: Markets rarely move in a straight line. Expect choppy trading, including dips and consolidation phases.
- Watch key resistance and support levels: Ethereum’s ability to break and hold above former all-time highs could signal the start of a sustained bull run.
- Follow ETH/BTC ratio for momentum clues: A healthy and rising ratio often indicates growing appetite for altcoins.
- Pay attention to altcoin patterns: Bullish technical formations in smaller caps and altcoins hint at fertile ground for gains.
- Be cautious but optimistic: While history provides helpful templates, every cycle carries its unique risks, emphasizing the need for disciplined risk management.
In conclusion, the present market bears uncanny resemblance to the clouded yet promising environment of September 2020—a period that, in hindsight, was the calm before a massive crypto rally. Investors who remain patient, cautious, and observant of these patterns may find themselves well positioned to navigate the volatility and seize potential opportunities ahead. History’s lessons stress that moments of uncertainty often precede times of significant reward. Staying informed and measured is key.
By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016
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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile.
