Is 2025 really a crypto bull year, or have we been in a stealth bear market this whole time? Here’s a contrarian take breaking down the data behind the noise.
In 2025, most crypto investors feel bullish. After all, Bitcoin hit new all-time highs in October, ETFs sparked fresh inflows, and mainstream sentiment is optimistic. But what if all of that masks a deeper, ongoing bear market? This article explores the contrarian thesis that despite surface-level rallies, 2025’s price action actually reflects a market still stuck in bearish conditions. We’ll break down the charts, data signals, and macro factors that underpin this viewpoint. By the end, you’ll understand why many traditional bull market indicators aren’t flashing green—and what this means for your investment approach.
Why Many Believe 2025 Is a Crypto Bull Market
Before unpacking the bear market case, it’s important to understand why the mainstream calls 2025 bullish:
- Bitcoin set new all-time highs in early October.
- Regulatory progress and Bitcoin ETFs drew new investment flows.
- The historic 4-year cycle suggests a post-halving bull phase.
- Influencers and crypto media unanimously declared a bull run underway.
On the surface, these factors seem convincing. But the story shifts when you dig deeper.
The Bear Market Case: 5 Data-Backed Points That Challenge the Bull Narrative
1. You’ve Been Looking at the Wrong Bitcoin Chart
Most charts compare Bitcoin price against USD. But when denominated in other major assets, Bitcoin’s 2025 performance looks bleak:
- Versus the Euro, Bitcoin’s gains shrink.
- Versus Gold, Bitcoin is notably down, showing bearish strength.
- Against major stock indices like NASDAQ and S&P, Bitcoin trades sideways at best.
This suggests the USD’s weakness has amplified Bitcoin’s apparent gains. The sharp drop in USD value inflated BTC/USD prices, not Bitcoin’s fundamentals.
2. Altcoins Paint an Even Grimmer Picture
The altcoin market—the broader crypto ecosystem minus Bitcoin—has struggled all year:
- No sustained “alt season” has appeared.
- Most altcoins have showed weakness or sideways trading.
- Temporary rallies faded quickly.
Bitcoin’s relative strength arose largely due to “heroic” moves by industry figures and concentrated capital, not broad market health.
3. Key On-Chain and Market Metrics Show Bearish Signals
Important data points have not aligned with typical bull markets:
- Active Bitcoin addresses have trended down throughout 2025.
- Transaction volumes remained flat or declined.
- Metrics like MVRV-Z score (market value to realized value) and P/L multiples stay below overbought levels.
- Long-term holders have steadily sold coins during the year.
- Retail interest remains muted, reflected in low Google search trends.
- There’s been no euphoria—primarily fear and uncertainty dominate sentiment.
This data paints a subdued picture inconsistent with bull market behavior.
4. Even Stock Markets Are Not Truly Bullish
The popular narrative links rising stocks to crypto bulls. But the U.S. stock market’s gains rely heavily on a few mega-cap “AI” stocks (the “MAG 7”). Once these are removed:
- Index breadth looks weak or negative.
- Many hot sectors face recent selloffs.
- Retail-driven rotations push themes like quantum or rare earth but lack sustainable momentum.
The so-called broader stock bull market feels narrow and fragile, not strong enough to support crypto euphoria.
5. Macro Environment Remains Unsupportive for Risk Assets
Macro factors have stayed uncertain or negative:
- Liquidity growth exists but at modest, insufficient rates.
- The Federal Reserve remains cautious, hesitant on rate cuts.
- Quantitative Tightening (QT) continued much of the year.
- Trade tensions and tariffs add economic drag.
Bitcoin, highly sensitive to macro vibes, trades more on uncertainty than confidence. Without clear support, a real bull run struggles to ignite.
Answer Box: What Are Signs Bitcoin Might Still Be in a Bear Market Despite New Highs?
Bitcoin’s new USD nominal highs in 2025 are largely driven by a weakening US dollar. When measured against other assets like gold or euro, or analyzed via on-chain metrics (active addresses, transaction volumes, long-term holder selling), signs point to weak fundamental demand and subdued retail interest, classic characteristics of a bear market.
When Could This Bear Market End?
The big question: if 2025 is mostly a bear market, when will it shift?
The outlook depends largely on macro:
- Will liquidity growth accelerate meaningfully?
- Will the Fed pivot decisively toward rate cuts?
- Will geopolitical and trade uncertainties ease?
There’s some speculation that political incentives—such as stimulus efforts before elections—could inject fresh bullish catalysts. Bitcoin’s historical tendency to front-run macro events hints that a turning point might come sooner than many expect.
Data Callout: Bitcoin Active Addresses Trend (2025 YTD)
Throughout 2025, active Bitcoin addresses—a proxy for user engagement—have steadily declined by around 10-15%. This decline contrasts sharply with typical bull markets, where new participant engagement surges. Lower on-chain activity signals weakening demand, posing a challenge to the prevailing bull narrative.
Risks: What Could Go Wrong With This Bear Market Thesis?
- Unexpected macro easing could rapidly reverse sentiment.
- New technological breakthroughs or regulatory support might trigger a bull market.
- Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics and investor behavior can produce atypical cycles.
- Over-reliance on comparisons versus other assets might miss isolated BTC/USD dynamics.
Investors should balance contrarian views with broader market context and maintain prudent risk management.
Summary: Key Takeaways for Investors
- Surface-level Bitcoin USD price gains in 2025 partly reflect a weak dollar, not broad strength.
- Altcoin struggles and muted retail interest suggest overall market weakness.
- On-chain activity and valuation metrics indicate persistent bearish conditions.
- Stock market rallies remain narrow and fragile, limiting crypto’s risk appetite boost.
- Macro uncertainty and Fed caution weigh heavily, delaying a sustained bull market shift.
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FAQs
Q1: Why do some people say 2025 is a bull market when Bitcoin only just hit new highs?
A: Bitcoin’s new USD highs stem largely from a weakening dollar. When measured versus gold, euro, or analyzed through on-chain metrics, the broader picture resembles a bear market.
Q2: What on-chain metrics best indicate whether we are in a bull or bear market?
A: Active addresses, transaction volume, long-term holder behavior, and valuation metrics like the MVRV-Z score provide clues. Low activity and steady selling suggest bearish trends.
Q3: How important is the macro environment for crypto markets?
A: Very important. Crypto often reacts strongly to liquidity conditions, Fed policy, and economic uncertainty. A supportive macro leads to bull markets, while tightening or uncertainty prolong bear markets.
Q4: Could a political event cause a sudden bullish shift?
A: Yes. For example, stimulus moves before elections or regulatory clarity can inject fresh capital and confidence, triggering rallies.
Q5: Should investors act differently if 2025 is a stealth bear market?
A: Awareness helps with risk management. Investors might focus on conviction, capitalize on dips, and use signals from on-chain data and macro trends before scaling risk.
Disclaimer: This article provides investor perspectives and analysis for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Crypto investing carries risk; always conduct your own research and consider consulting a professional.
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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile
