Deck: After Bitcoin’s sharp rise and sudden crash in October 2025, we break down whether the bull run is over or just hitting a midcycle reset.
Bitcoin’s explosive run from around $15,500 in late 2022 to a staggering $126,251 in October 2025 has sparked a familiar debate: was the recent top Bitcoin’s ultimate peak, or is this a momentary reset in an ongoing bull market? In this article, you’ll learn the key data points, market signals, and contrasting analyst views shaping Bitcoin’s future. We’ll also cover Ethereum’s differing but intertwined story within this cycle. By the end, you'll have a clearer framework for managing risks and spotting opportunities in volatile crypto markets.
Bitcoin’s 2025 Rally and Sudden Crash: The Big Picture
Bitcoin climbed 8x in about 1,060 days—an increase fitting historical post-halving cycles. However, following its all-time high near $126,000, the market saw a rapid reversal. Within a week in October, Bitcoin plunged nearly 20%, wiping out roughly $600 billion in crypto market value. According to CoinGlass, liquidations topped $19 billion that day—12 times the level seen during the FTX collapse and 19 times more than the COVID-19 crash in 2020. Broader markets also tumbled with $770 billion wiped off global stocks, triggered by trade tensions announced by the Trump administration. Such simultaneity led some analysts to declare this event as the cycle’s peak, akin to the U.S. market chaos in 2022. ### Market Sentiment and Holder Behavior
- The Fear and Greed Index plunged to 29, reflecting heightened investor fear, the lowest in over a year.
- Short-term holders took profits aggressively during the sell-off.
- Long-term holders absorbed much of the supply, a classic dynamic observed at historical tops.
Typically, Bitcoin tops emerge 12 to 18 months after a halving. The April 2024 halving places this October 2025 peak right on schedule if this is indeed the ultimate top.
Was October’s Drop a Reset or the End of the Bull Run?
On the flip side, there’s strong evidence this might just be a pause, not an endpoint.
- Bitcoin quickly stabilized around $108,000-110,000.
- It maintained its 50-day moving average without breaking down structurally.
- Realized volatility normalized within two weeks—consistent with midcycle “flushes” seen in prior rallies.
- Institutional inflows continued, with Bitcoin ETFs attracting $7 billion this year, totaling $50 billion in holdings (CoinShares data).
- Global liquidity remains supportive: the Fed and ECB have pumped roughly $2 trillion into markets since mid-2024, historically a fuel for recovery.
- Glassnode’s accumulation trend score rebounded above 0.8, signaling strong long-term buying.
- Unlike 2022, no major exchange failures occurred. Decentralized exchanges also reported zero bad debt despite record liquidations.
If Bitcoin holds above $100,000 and reclaims $120,000 to $125,000, that would confirm renewed strength and likely draw sidelined capital back in.
Data Callout:
$19 billion liquidated in Bitcoin on October 10, 2025 — a 12x increase compared to FTX’s collapse.
Institutional and Macro Outlook for Bitcoin
Forecasters at Bloomberg Intelligence project Bitcoin’s potential to reach between $140,000 and $220,000 by mid-2026 if ETF inflows persist. Research from Arc Invest and K33 suggests a prolonged cycle into 2026, possibly driving total crypto market caps between $8 trillion and $14 trillion, implying Bitcoin prices between $180,000 and $400,000. While these are optimistic, the key risk is a breakdown below $100,000, which could trigger deeper corrections towards $70,000 to $90,000. ---
Ethereum in 2025: A Different Story
Ethereum’s price action contrasts with Bitcoin’s drama. Trading around $3,900 in late October, down from highs near $4,900, Ethereum showed resilience through the October liquidation event.
Ethereum’s Fundamentals
- Approximately 26% of ETH supply (31 million coins) is staked in validators, supporting network security and passive income.
- Glassnode reports centralized exchange ETH balances at a 9-year low, a bullish accumulation sign.
- Layer 2 (L2) networks, critical for scaling, locked over $23 billion — a record high.
- Institutional interest remains strong, with BlackRock’s spot ETH ETF acquisitions totaling $1.44 billion since October 1, and Fidelity adding $150 million.
- CoinShares recorded three straight weeks of Ethereum inflows.
Technicals and Sentiment
Ethereum faces consolidation:
- Trading below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
- MACD signals flat momentum.
- RSI near 40 shows limited strength.
- Support zones stand between $3,400 and $3,900.
- Elevated open interest points to potential price swings from leverage positions.
If Ethereum can hold current levels through year-end, analysts expect recovery towards $4,800 and beyond. Upgrades like PETRA — expanding staking yields and continued L2 scaling — may even push cycles toward $7,000 to $15,000 in 2026. ---
Answer Box
Q: Was Bitcoin’s October 2025 crash the end of the bull market?
A: Not necessarily. While the sharp 20% drop and $19 billion liquidations indicate a major reset, Bitcoin stabilized above key moving averages, institutional inflows continue, and macro liquidity remains supportive. This suggests the crash may be a midcycle flush rather than the final peak.
Risks and What Could Go Wrong
- A sustained break below $100,000 for Bitcoin may trigger deeper sell-offs, potentially towards $70,000-$90,000.
- Elevated leverage and open interest heighten risks of abrupt price swings.
- Macro factors like tightening monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, or black swan events can provoke sudden downturns.
- Ethereum’s heavy reliance on Layer 2 scalability and staking frameworks could face technical or adoption hurdles, limiting upside.
- Overexuberance at cycle tops can lead to emotional trading mistakes; price volatility remains high.
Summary: Key Takeaways for Investors
- Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak and crash fit historical post-halving patterns but don’t conclusively mark the cycle’s end.
- Institutional inflows, market structure, and liquidity injections argue for continued upside potential.
- Ethereum shows resilience with strong staking, Layer 2 growth, and institutional interest; key supports are holding.
- Managing risk means watching crucial support levels ($100K for BTC, $3,400 for ETH) and preparing for volatility.
- The best edge in crypto is education and discipline, not perfect timing.
Ready for Deeper Insights?
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FAQ
Q1: How high can Bitcoin realistically go by 2026?
A1: Forecasts range from $140,000 to $220,000, with extended cycle scenarios pushing towards $400,000 — but these depend on sustained ETF inflows and macro support.
Q2: What does the liquidation event in October 2025 signify?
A2: It could be a midcycle reset flushing out weak holders or the technical end of this bull run. Both outcomes remain plausible.
Q3: Why is Ethereum’s cycle different from Bitcoin’s?
A3: Ethereum benefits from staking, Layer 2 scalability, and strong utility demand, making its price action more resilient and potentially lagging Bitcoin by a few months.
Q4: What are key support levels to watch?
A4: For Bitcoin, $100,000 is critical. For Ethereum, the $3,400 to $3,900 range forms the main support band.
Q5: Should I panic sell during such crashes?
A5: No. Volatility is part of crypto’s early market nature. Staying informed and managing exposure is essential.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve significant risk, including loss of principal. Always do your own research or consult a licensed professional.
By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016
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