Bitcoin’s renowned 4-year cycle—marked by predictable halvings, supply shocks, and subsequent bull runs—has long guided investor expectations and market rhythms. But as we approach the 2025 bull run, an unmistakable shift in this cycle's pattern is unfolding. The once-familiar pattern of explosive rallies followed by sharp drawdowns seems muted, replaced by more structural changes in market dynamics, institutional involvement, and retail behavior. Is the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle coming to an end, or is it simply evolving to a new tempo?
The Classic 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle: A Refresher
Bitcoin’s cycle is fundamentally anchored to the “halving” — a hard-coded event occurring every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, where the block reward (newly issued BTC) is cut in half. Since Bitcoin’s inception, four halvings have taken place in 2012, 2016, 2020, and most recently in 2024. These halvings reduce the influx of new Bitcoins into the market, tightening supply while demand tends to rise, sparking upward price pressure.
Historically, each halving triggered significant rallies: approximately 95x after 2012, 30x post-2016, and 8x following 2020. This pattern is driven by a circular feedback loop where scarcity attracts media attention, drawing fresh investors and propelling prices higher toward euphoric blowoff tops. Post-peak, dramatic sell-offs typically wipe out 70-90% of gains, purging excesses and resetting the stage for the next cycle.
What’s Different About the 2025 Cycle?
While the overall architecture remains—the halving still reduces supply—the players and market mechanics have changed dramatically, making the 2024-2025 cycle feel decidedly “weird” by comparison.
Institutional Demand Soars
Unlike previous cycles primarily powered by retail traders and crypto-native funds, this cycle sees large institutional actors hoovering up Bitcoin supply. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, launched around early 2024, now custody approximately $135 billion in BTC, with funds like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust holding roughly 3.3% of total supply outright. These ETFs tend to hold long-only, unhedged positions, providing stable and predictable demand insensitive to short-term price volatility.
Meanwhile, corporate treasuries have emerged as powerful accumulators. Technology firms like MicroStrategy hold close to 600,000 BTC, and in total, over 120 publicly traded companies control nearly 4% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, locking away enormous amounts of coins. Even the U.S. Treasury has made headlines by creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve with over 100,000 BTC seized from forfeitures, further reducing market float.
Volatility Is Unusually Low
One striking feature of this cycle is exceptionally muted volatility. Bull markets of prior eras saw realized volatility surging well above 80%, often hitting triple-digit levels as traders and speculators ramped up activity. In sharp contrast, 2024-2025 has seen realized volatility settle below 50%—remarkably subdued for a bull market phase.
This calmness is largely attributed to the dominance of institutional buyers who dollar-cost-average their way into Bitcoin rather than swinging for quick gains. The steady accumulation dampens the violent price swings that typically define the cycle’s climax and correction phases.
Retail Engagement and Altcoin Behavior Shift
Retail traders are no longer the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s rally and are instead migrating towards more speculative corners of crypto, particularly memecoins. Unlike in previous cycles, where significant altcoin rallies followed Bitcoin peaks, memecoins have led speculative activity earlier in this cycle, accounting for more than half of Solana’s decentralized exchange volume. This inversion hints at a new distribution of speculative interest, fueled by low-fee wallets, social media virality, and simplified launch mechanisms.
In parallel, Ethereum’s layer 2 solutions have experienced massive growth in transaction throughput, enabling cheaper and faster user interactions that further shift retail activity away from the base layer and more traditional coins.
A Favorable Regulatory and Macro Backdrop
Regulatory uncertainty, a major dampener in prior cycles, appears easing. The recent passage of a federal stablecoin bill in the U.S. and the crypto-friendly stance adopted by the current and previous administrations have reduced existential dread within the industry.
On the macroeconomic front, loosening monetary policy with multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from late 2024 has bolstered liquidity and risk appetite. The Federal Reserve’s scaling back of quantitative tightening in early 2025 further signals a favorable environment for continued risk-taking in crypto assets.
Has the 4-Year Cycle Flatlined?
Given these changes, many wonder if the time-honored Bitcoin cycle is dead. Market behavior certainly suggests a departure. Bitcoin’s corrections during this cycle have been much shallower, maxing out near -30%, compared to the 50-70% drawdowns historically required to cleanse overvaluations.
The presence of large, steady institutional “whales”—from ETFs to corporate treasuries to a government Bitcoin reserve—smooths out the volatile price movements miners once helped trigger by forced selling post-halving. Miners have also profited from more effective hedging and forward markets, further dampening the shock to supply.
As Matt Hogan, CIO of Bitwise, observes, it is now macro catalysts—like monetary policy shifts and regulatory developments—rather than block reward supply shocks, that largely set Bitcoin’s market rhythm. The traditional four-year metronome appears to be slowing, shifting into an unpredictable, jazz-like cadence with familiar motifs but irregular beats.
Yet, despite these shifts, the 4-year cycle’s fundamental principle of supply scarcity remains relevant, and new structural forces seem to be layering on top, reshaping the cycle rather than ending it outright.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Bitcoin itself remains the undisputed centerpiece of this institutional cycle, anchored by deep buy-side support from major ETFs, corporate treasuries, and government holdings. This structural bid supports more measured, less euphoric price advances.
For altcoins, the landscape is more nuanced. The classic altcoin boom following Bitcoin peaks is largely absent, replaced by distinct pockets of trading dominated by memecoins and emerging sectors. One promising area is Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization—assets like tokenized treasuries, credit instruments, and commodities circulating on blockchains have surged from proof of concept to a $24 billion market. Institutional interest is strong here, with projects demonstrating genuine yield and revenue attracting considerable capital.
Investors should recognize that in today’s market, altcoins without robust product-market fit and real usage face swift correction, while selective winners with active users stand to benefit. Bitcoin’s dominant structural support ensures it remains the portfolio anchor, while altcoins require more discerning approaches.
Looking Ahead to the 2025 Bull Run
If this cycle still follows a general four-year timeline, the Bitcoin peak is expected between Q3 2025 and Q1 2026. However, predicting the exact height and shape of this peak is more complex in today’s evolved market.
The confluence of steady institutional buying, muted volatility, shifting retail interests, and a friendlier regulatory environment creates a landscape where traditional fireworks can be replaced by a longer, steadier ascent—or unexpected pauses and surges, as jazz replaces metronome.
Bitcoin’s old dance may have a new rhythm, and investors will need to adapt to this changing cadence to make the most of the next bull run.
In summary, while the classic 4-year Bitcoin cycle no longer operates with the same relentless, predictable beat, it is not necessarily over. Instead, it has morphed into a more complex rhythm dominated by institutional players, regulatory clarity, and evolving retail behavior. Bitcoin remains king, setting the tempo for the market and cementing its role as the leading crypto asset in an institutionally driven era. Understanding this new dynamic will be key to navigating and capitalizing on the 2025 bull run and beyond.
By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016
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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile.
