The cryptocurrency community has long debated the significance of Bitcoin's historically observed four-year price cycle. With prior cycle peaks in December 2013, December 2017, and November 2021, many have seen this pattern as almost invincible—predicting that it will continue to dictate market behavior. However, with new developments in institutional participation, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic shifts, the question arises: is the 4-year cycle truly unbreakable, or are we entering a new phase that will rewrite Bitcoin's future trajectory?
The Case for the 4-Year Cycle’s Endurance
Bitcoin's cyclical nature has been closely tied to its halving events, which reduce the rate of new supply entering the market approximately every four years. Historically, these supply shocks have catalyzed significant price expansions, with tops occurring 12 to 18 months after each halving. This timeline aligns well with the previous market highs, fueling expectations that another formidable peak could arrive in late 2025. Furthermore, this cycle has become embedded deeply in the psyche of retail traders, analysts, and even institutional investors. It’s more than a pattern—it's a meme and a self-fulfilling prophecy. When enough market participants anticipate a particular outcome, their actions can enforce its realization. The notion that “every four years, like clockwork, the market tops” shapes investment decisions, fueling momentum and setting clear market rhythms.
Adding weight to this theory is Bitcoin’s robust bull run since bottoming in November 2022. If the 4-year cycle remains intact, we should be nearing the top of the current bull market rather than just beginning it. In this view, the anticipated peak in October or November 2024 could mark the final crest before a bear market resumes, rewarding those who time the cycle correctly and punishing those who dismiss its historical reliability.
The Argument for a Cycle Extension: Has Bitcoin Matured?
Conversely, some experts suggest that Bitcoin—and the wider crypto market—is evolving beyond its prior growth mechanisms. Unlike earlier cycles dominated by retail FOMO and miner-driven supply shocks, this cycle is increasingly shaped by institutional investors, ETFs, pension funds, and corporate treasuries. The massive scale and strategic nature of institutional inflows could alter traditional market dynamics.
Institutional investors’ methodical, less emotional approach may smooth out the typically sharp “blowoff” peaks and swift downturns seen in prior cycles, potentially prolonging the bull market well beyond what the four-year pattern predicts. Treasury asset companies, for example, bought a record 159,000 BTC in Q2 2024, demonstrating strong, sustained demand at scale.
Macro environment factors add further complexity. The current regulatory landscape is arguably the friendliest crypto has seen, with expectations of new altcoin ETFs and a decreased risk of sudden government crackdowns that historically triggered market tops. Additionally, with the US dollar weakening and inflation-adjusted valuations not yet signaling a bubble, Bitcoin’s price appears far from overheated.
Looking ahead, the tenure of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair ends in May 2026. A shift toward more dovish monetary policy could inject fresh liquidity and optimism into markets, supporting price increases into 2026 or even later. This extension thesis suggests the current cycle’s peak might be significantly delayed, diverging from the once-reliable four-year pattern.
Reconciling Both Perspectives: A Personal Take
After weighing both sides, the balance of evidence suggests that Bitcoin’s cycle may indeed be extending. The macroeconomic backdrop, institutional adoption, and regulatory support point away from an imminent peak. We have yet to see the kind of market euphoria that typically precedes a top, and current economic indicators suggest a strong underlying momentum.
In sum, the idea of a fixed, invincible four-year cycle may be giving way to a more nuanced reality—a market influenced by broader, more stable forces that could sustain an extended bull run. Investors would do well to reconsider timing assumptions based solely on historical cycles and pay close attention to evolving fundamentals.
What This Means for Investors
The stakes are undeniably high. Mistiming the cycle risks significant opportunity costs, while correctly anticipating the market phase can yield life-changing gains. Whether the market adheres to tradition or rewrites its script, staying informed and adaptable will be vital.
In conclusion, while the four-year cycle has been a reliable pattern in Bitcoin’s past, the increasing complexity of crypto’s ecosystem may stretch or even transform this rhythm. The cycle’s invincibility is no longer certain—but its impact and influence will remain a central theme in crypto discourse for years to come.
By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016
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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile.
