Prepare to Be Surprised: An Unexpected Twist You Won’t Anticipate in Bitcoin’s Bubble Momentum
Why Bitcoin’s current price action and investor behavior suggest a late-stage mania — not the start of a crash — but with hidden risks ahead
Bitcoin’s 2017 bull market remains one of the most studied crypto cycles for good reason. Its bubble phases and momentum shifts tell a story that investors can learn from today. In this article, we break down how Bitcoin’s key momentum indicators and investor debt trends point to a nuanced market setup. We’ll explain why Bitcoin could still have upside room before a major pullback, and what risks the growing leverage among treasury companies and miners could trigger in the next downturn.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Momentum Through the 2017 Bull Run
Bitcoin’s 2017 rally had clear momentum phases revealed by moving averages (MAs). These are lines tracking average prices over set periods, showing market trend strength.
- Mania phase: Price stayed well above key moving averages, all pointing upward. Momentum was extremely strong.
- Peak and blowoff: Once the top hit, prices struggled to stay above these averages. Moving averages turned down and momentum collapsed, signaling the painful burst phase.
Every crypto bubble is powered by this momentum — irrational enthusiasm persists as long as gains compound aggressively. When momentum wanes, the market becomes vulnerable to reversal.
Current Bitcoin Momentum Looks Familiar, But Not Yet Broken
Today, Bitcoin’s price has slipped below key MAs, suggesting momentum might be weakening. However, similar dips below moving averages occurred briefly in late 2023, mid-2024, and early 2025 — only for price to reclaim these lines and push higher. This bounce-back pattern signals that momentum could still be alive.
Investor takeaway: If Bitcoin reclaims the moving averages and they begin trending upward again, momentum will confirm a bullish setup. But sustained price staying below these lines with down-sloping MAs would indicate a need to reconsider a bearish stance quickly.
Data Callout: Growing Debt Among Bitcoin Treasury Companies and Miners
| Entity | 2023 Debt (Approx.) | 2025 Debt (Approx.) | Increase Multiplier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury Companies | $2 billion | $12 billion | 6x |
| Bitcoin Miners | $2 billion | $22 billion | 11x |
The surge in debt, especially among miners and treasury companies, adds a layer of systemic risk. High leverage means forced asset sales if liquidity tightens, potentially amplifying price drops.
What This All Means for Investors Today
- Liquidity is still abundant.
- Market demand remains strong.
- Momentum has yet to confirm a major breakdown.
- Long-term holders tend to sell into mania phases, not crash phases — and this is happening now.
These are classic characteristics of the later stages of a mania phase, not the painful blowoff phase yet.
Answer Box: What Does Bitcoin’s Momentum Tell Us About Its Future Price?
Bitcoin’s momentum is tracked by price relative to key moving averages. When price is above upward-sloping moving averages, the market is in a bullish, momentum-driven phase. Recent dips below these averages were short-lived, suggesting momentum remains intact. A confirmed sustained break below with downward-sloping moving averages would signal a potential bear market or bubble burst underway.
Risks / What Could Go Wrong?
- Growing leverage risk: Treasury companies and miners have increased their debt more than 5x and 10x respectively since 2023.
- Liquidity tightening: If macroeconomic conditions shift (e.g., rising interest rates, credit crunch), these highly leveraged players may need to sell Bitcoin holdings rapidly to meet obligations.
- Amplified downside: Forced selling from indebted players can cause sharp and deeper price corrections than past cycles.
- Momentum breakdown: Failure to reclaim moving averages with sustained downtrends would mark a shift to the blowoff/bear phase.
Actionable Summary
- Bitcoin’s current momentum resembles a late mania phase, not yet a crash.
- Key moving averages act as critical momentum gauges — watch for sustained price above or below them.
- Growing debt among mining and treasury firms increases systemic risk for the next downturn.
- Liquidity and demand remain supportive for now, but conditions can change quickly.
- Long-term holders are beginning to sell into strength, a classic pre-bubble-burst behavior.
If Bitcoin holds the moving averages, expect potential upside continuation. If it fails, prepare for amplified downside risk.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: What moving averages are most important to watch for Bitcoin momentum?
Key moving averages like the 50-day and 200-day are widely used. Price staying above these with upward slopes indicates healthy momentum.
Q2: Why does growing debt among miners and treasury companies matter?
Higher leverage means forced selling risk if liquidity dries up, which can worsen price crashes.
Q3: How does Bitcoin’s 2017 momentum cycle compare to today?
Both show strong momentum during mania with sharp drops signaling the blowoff. Today’s price action suggests we may still be in late mania stages.
Q4: Can Bitcoin recover if it breaks below moving averages temporarily?
Yes, past dips below moving averages were reclaimed quickly. Sustained breaks with downward-moving averages would be more concerning.
Q5: What signs indicate the start of a painful blowoff in Bitcoin’s cycle?
Downward sloping moving averages combined with price consistently below key levels and high leveraged selling signal blowoff phases.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto investments carry risks and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research.
Keep tracking momentum shifts and leverage levels closely for the next unexpected turn. Get the full playbook and entries in today’s Wolfy Wealth PRO brief.
By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016
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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile
