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The Future of Alt Season: Predicting Its Longevity and Impact on the Crypto Market

· By Mike Wolfy Wealth · 3 min read


The crypto market is no stranger to volatility, and one of its most eagerly anticipated phases is “alt season”—a period when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) experience significant price surges relative to Bitcoin. But how long does alt season last, and what does its future hold amid the broader economic landscape? To answer these questions, it helps to look back at historical trends and the current macroeconomic environment shaping crypto’s trajectory.

Understanding Market Cycles and Alt Season

Alt season typically emerges during or near the end of a Bitcoin bull run. Historically, 80% of the gains in a crypto bull market occur in the final 20% of the rally, often concentrated in a two-week to two-month window. This explosive rally towards the end of a cycle is driven largely by investor psychology—once Bitcoin’s price rises beyond the reach of average buyers, capital flows into altcoins, which are seen as cheaper and promising alternatives.

Investors often flock to altcoins like XRP, Dogecoin, or other projects trading well below Bitcoin’s six-figure price tag, hoping for outsized returns. However, the allure can be misleading if one doesn’t understand fundamentals like market capitalization. Altcoins with lower market caps have more room to grow, but they also carry increased risk and volatility.

The Economic Backdrop: Inflation and Monetary Policy

The longevity and intensity of alt season are influenced not just by crypto dynamics but by the broader macroeconomic context. Inflation continues to be a critical concern, with government-reported Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures widely regarded as underestimations. Real inflation is likely higher due to relentless money printing—80% of all US dollars in existence were created in the last five years alone.

This influx of fiat currency has caused asset prices, including housing, to inflate dramatically. For perspective, the average American home cost around $66,000 in 1981; today, it is over $410,000. Meanwhile, the national debt has ballooned from $900 billion in 1981 to an astonishing $37 trillion today, increasing at roughly 9% annually. These figures paint a picture of sustained currency dilution and purchasing power erosion.

Bitcoin's Role Amidst Inflation

Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it inherently scarce and resistant to inflation, positioning it as the “best money on the planet.” Since its inception, Bitcoin’s price has surged from a fraction of a cent to highs exceeding $120,000 in hypothetical terms, reflecting growing adoption and recognition as a hedge against fiat devaluation.

The Federal Reserve’s policies and political theater around interest rates—exemplified by conflicts between government figures like President Trump and Fed Chair Powell—highlight the unpredictability and complex nature of monetary policy, which often serves as a backdrop for crypto market movements.

What to Expect for the Future of Alt Season

Given historical patterns and the economic environment:

  • Alt season will likely continue to manifest in short but intense bursts toward the end of bull cycles, typically lasting from a few weeks to a couple of months.
  • Investor behavior remains a critical driver; greed and the search for cheaper assets when Bitcoin’s price is perceived as prohibitively high will continue fueling altcoin rallies.
  • Macro factors such as ongoing inflation and the expansion of money supply will maintain upward pressure on crypto assets as investors seek to preserve wealth.
  • However, investors should be mindful that altcoin markets are highly speculative and that market cap mismatches and lack of fundamental understanding can pose risks.
  • Education and awareness are paramount, as understanding market mechanics and broader economic factors can help investors navigate alt seasons more strategically.

Conclusion

Alt season is an integral, recurring feature of the crypto market that capitalizes on investor psychology and the fundamental drivers of Bitcoin’s price cycles. While it tends to be fleeting, its impact is profound for many altcoins and traders seeking gains beyond Bitcoin’s growth. In a world of persistent inflation and monetary expansion, crypto assets—especially Bitcoin—are poised to remain relevant, with alt seasons serving as both opportunity and volatility markers. Awareness, patience, and education will be key for anyone looking to navigate these dynamic periods in the crypto market’s evolving story.

By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016

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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile.

Updated on Aug 2, 2025