The cryptocurrency landscape is constantly evolving, with questions arising around the future of altcoins, particularly: when will altcoin season commence? The indicators point towards a potentially explosive period ahead, starting as early as next month. Let's explore the factors contributing to this anticipated surge and the patterns that may guide investors in the weeks to come.
Understanding Market Cycles
Historically, Bitcoin has operated in a four-year cycle, peaking every four years. The last three cycles peaked in November or December, specifically in 2013, 2017, and 2021. If this pattern holds, we could see significant price movements once again in late 2023. Utilizing data from these past cycles, certain charts suggest that Bitcoin could hit a peak around November or December, following a predictable trajectory.
Recent analysis shows that Bitcoin's price movements are closely tied to previous cycles, allowing for projections based on past performance. A particular "power curve" chart indicates that Bitcoin's recent correction has realigned it back to where it should be in this cycle, setting the stage for a potentially remarkable rise beginning in July, leading into the end of the year.
The Role of Global M2
In addition to historical cycles, there's a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the global money supply (M2). The recent fluctuations in M2 due to various economic pressures hint at a significant rebound, which aligns with the bullish sentiment on Bitcoin's prospects. Should this rebound materialize, the altcoin market, typically following Bitcoin’s lead, could also see significant growth.
When to Expect Altcoin Season
While the excitement builds around Bitcoin, many investors are eager to know when "altcoin season" will kick off. Analyzing the performance of the top 125 altcoins (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum), metrics indicate that the altcoin market has been underperforming against Bitcoin, leading to a dominance of Bitcoin in the current market.
However, recent indicators suggest that altcoins are on the brink of a turnaround. If these altcoins do sweep recent lows—now only about 20% from their bottom—major rebounds could occur quickly, particularly as the traditional altcoin seasons of the past have illustrated that significant price moves can unfold in a matter of days.
It’s important to remember that altcoin seasons don’t extend indefinitely. Previous bull runs, particularly in 2017 and 2021, lasted only a few months. In those years, investors witnessed massive gains concentrated over brief periods, indicating that if an altcoin season were to emerge this year, it could occur during the last quarter, from October to December.
Key Takeaways
- Historical Patterns: The historical analysis shows that Bitcoin has consistently peaked on a four-year cycle, suggesting we could see a similar pattern in 2023. 2. Chart Insights: Understanding the power curve and Bitcoin’s relation to global M2 can provide valuable context for potential price movements and market trends.
- Anticipate Rapid Movements: If an altcoin season is indeed upon us, expect it to unfold rapidly, potentially concentrating gains in just a few months, echoing the fervent market behavior of previous cycles.
- Stay Informed: Keeping an eye on market dynamics, global economic indicators, and historical price movements will be essential for timing investments during this speculative phase.
In conclusion, the combination of historical data, current market trends, and global financial indicators suggests that altcoin season could be on the horizon. By remaining vigilant and informed, investors can position themselves to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities in the cryptocurrency realm.
By Wolfy Wealth - Empowering crypto investors since 2016
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Disclosure: Authors may be crypto investors mentioned in this newsletter. Wolfy Wealth Crypto newsletter, does not represent an offer to trade securities or other financial instruments. Our analyses, information and investment strategies are for informational purposes only, in order to spread knowledge about the crypto market. Any investments in variable income may cause partial or total loss of the capital used. Therefore, the recipient of this newsletter should always develop their own analyses and investment strategies. In addition, any investment decisions should be based on the investor's risk profile.
